What July's GTA New Home Numbers Mean for Buyers

New single-family home prices in the GTA fell 8.5 per cent over the past year to $1,362,433 in July, while new condo prices rose 2.5 per cent to $1,054,938, BILD's own figures show. Total sales stayed 40 per cent below the 10-year average, and the HST rebate kept single-family sales strong for a fourth straight month.

How much did new home prices change in the GTA in July?

New single-family home prices in the Greater Toronto Area fell 8.5 per cent over the past year to $1,362,433 in July, according to figures the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) released today. New condo prices moved the other way, up 2.5 per cent year over year to $1,054,938. Both are builders' gross prices, before any HST rebate.

Overall new home sales came in at 1,018 units for the month. That is still 40 per cent below the 10-year average of 1,707 units, even with a sharp improvement over July 2025's record low.

Why are single-family sales beating the average while condos still lag?

Single-family sales hit 781 units in July, 50 per cent above their 10-year average. Condo sales reached 237 units, up 40 per cent from a year earlier but still 80 per cent below their own 10-year average.

BILD points to the federal First-Time Home Buyers' GST/HST rebate as a big part of the gap. The rebate only applies to homes where construction started on or after March 20, 2025, under the rules the Canada Revenue Agency sets for the rebate. Most single-family builds can meet that timeline. A lot of condo units still selling today were already under construction before that date, so a chunk of the condo market cannot claim the rebate at all.

How does the rebate work, and who actually qualifies?

The rebate is for first-time buyers only. The CRA defines that as someone who has not owned and lived in a home, as their primary residence, at any point in the current calendar year or the four before it, and the same test applies to a spouse or common-law partner.

The home has to be a new build with a purchase agreement signed on or after March 20, 2025, and before 2031, with construction starting in that same window and substantial completion by 2036. The purchase price cap is $1.5 million, well above the current benchmark price in either segment.

If you are a first-time buyer looking at a new build, the construction start date is the detail that decides whether the rebate applies to that specific unit. It is worth asking the builder directly rather than assuming.

What does 36.5 months of unsold inventory mean if you are buying?

Builders were sitting on 18,546 unsold units at the end of July, which BILD calculates as 36.5 months of supply at the current sales pace. That is a large stockpile by historical standards. Altus Group's Edward Jegg, quoted in BILD's release, said builders are keeping product moving without pushing prices higher, which is consistent with the price drop on the single-family side.

For a buyer, a large unsold inventory generally means more choice and more room to negotiate on things like upgrades, closing dates and deposit structure, though every project sets its own terms.

What should a GTA buyer take from this?

The two segments are telling different stories right now. Single-family new builds are pricing down and selling above their historical pace, helped by a rebate most buyers in that segment can access. Condos are pricing up slightly on much lower volume, and a meaningful share of what is on offer cannot provide the same rebate because of when construction began.

Anyone shopping new construction should ask a builder directly, before signing anything, whether a specific unit's construction start date and price put the GST/HST rebate in reach. Our affordability calculator can show what a given price means for a monthly payment once you know which units qualify.

Sources: BILD, "Low-rise new home sales in the GTA continue to reap the benefits of the HST rebate program in July"; Canada Revenue Agency, First-Time Home Buyers' GST/HST rebate, who can apply.