Will your contractor pass tariff costs on to you?

About three in ten Canadian businesses say they are likely to pass tariff driven cost increases on to customers over the next 12 months, and nearly four in ten do not expect to pass on any, Statistics Canada reported on August 31, 2026. The survey closed before Canada's newest counter tariffs were announced.

Statistics Canada published the third quarter Canadian Survey on Business Conditions on August 31, 2026. It asks businesses what they expect over the next three months, and this round asked them directly whether they intend to pass tariff costs on to their customers.

That question matters to any GTA household with a renovation, an addition or a new build in front of it, because the answer is what turns a trade dispute into a line on your quote.

How many businesses say they will pass tariff costs on?

About three in ten. Statistics Canada reports that 30.4 per cent of businesses were very or somewhat likely to pass cost increases due to tariffs onto their customers over the next 12 months. On the other side, 36.3 per cent did not expect to pass any on, 14.7 per cent were unlikely to, and 18.7 per cent were unsure.

Looking backwards rather than forwards, 27.4 per cent said they had already passed tariff cost increases on, 37.7 per cent said they had passed none on, and 34.9 per cent had no tariff driven cost increases in the first place.

A higher price is not automatic. It is a decision each supplier and each contractor makes, which is why two quotes for the same kitchen can move in different directions.

Why does the date this survey was taken matter?

Because it closed before the newest measures existed. Statistics Canada says the survey was conducted from July 2 to August 6, 2026. Canada announced its counter tariffs on August 25, and the Department of Finance says that effective September 8, Canada will impose counter tariffs of 15, 25 and 50 per cent on products drawn from those targeted by US Section 338 and Section 232 tariffs, with the rate for each product matching the corresponding US rate.

Every intention in the survey was recorded before September 8 was on the calendar. We can report what businesses said in early August. We cannot say what they will do once the new rates are being paid at the border. The rates and the product categories are set out in our earlier piece on what Canada's new US tariffs mean for renovation costs.

Which businesses expect the most cost pressure?

Construction is near the top of the list. Across the whole economy 41.6 per cent of businesses expect inflation to be an obstacle over the next three months, and Statistics Canada says the businesses expecting that obstacle the most are in accommodation and food services at 58.3 per cent, construction at 51.8 per cent and manufacturing at 48.7 per cent.

The wider picture is easier than it was. 59.8 per cent of businesses expect cost related obstacles over the next three months, an improvement from 64.3 per cent in the second quarter, and 72.6 per cent are very or somewhat optimistic about their outlook over the next 12 months. Only 20.6 per cent anticipate raising the selling price of their goods or services over the next three months.

What should you ask before you sign a renovation contract?

Four questions, and every answer belongs in writing.

Is the price firm, or is there a clause that lets it move if material costs rise. Have the materials already been bought and priced, or will they be ordered later. Which parts of the job are imported, since steel, aluminum, appliances and furniture are among the categories Canada's counter tariffs name. And what happens to both the schedule and the price if a supplier reprices partway through.

If you are still deciding whether the work is worth doing, our renovation return calculator covers the resale side of the same question.